Monday, October 24, 2011

Global Warming - It's all about Statistics

 

A new UC Berkley study reports (October 2011) that the Earth is getting warmer. The study has not been “peer reviewed” yet but since they are ALL using the same data as other research people it would not be surprising that they all come to the same conclusion!

 

A good scientific blind study requires using the same method but creating different test data and getting to the same conclusion. If every study uses the same test data then that is just not possible.

 

The issue about testing for global warming is that the data gathered is based on location AND the type of equipment used then "normalized" by some statistical (often proprietary) method to account for local and equipment variances and THEN is used to create a conclusion.

 

A weather "station" from 1830 records temperature by a person using "local" time by using a glass thermometer (and no way to know  how accurate it was) is now at the "same" location of an automated station that is now inside a city which states that it is now 6 degrees warmer than the same date and time in 1830.

 

Heat islands, extra heat put into the air by loss of heat by buildings and extra absorbed heat by the buildings and which in turn heats up the surrounding air, is "calculated out" of what they EXPECT the actual temperature to be if there were no heat islands. They cannot actually use the recorded temperature because of this fact – it would knowingly show every city getting warmer and the surrounding countryside staying the same – because of humans being there!

 

The math used to calculate and then subtract the "extra" heat often is a problem.

 

You can see this easily on the east coast around DC. West of DC temp is 50, over DC 55 to 57, then along the Chesapeake Bay it is again around 50. The island affect is local - but may cover a 40 mile diameter.

 

However, there were NO remote temp reporting stations in the middle of the US, Europe - anywhere in the world till around WW I when it become important enough to create stations to help in military operations. Of course in WW II due to air operations reporting stations were created around the whole world as well as aircraft reporting weather data. This is why cold and warm air masses are reported as "fronts" – it is derived from military combat terms.

 

Now you become suspect when they report as "fact" the temperatures back in 1700s, 1300s etc - they are guessing based on MODERN observation and projecting it onto past events (growth rings in trees for example).

 

And when they state they have never seen a glacier this small "since 1806" then HOW did it get that small in 1806?

 

The problem comes in that each person uses a different set of statistical methods, but the SAME sets of reporting stations, applies these to "normalize" them all to a standard, THEN comes a graph to show trends and makes a conclusion.

 

The problem is that NO ONE agrees on how to do any of those things.

 

If there were just 100 stations that reported temp all at the same TRUE time of day over 200 years - they all would be in cities by now and then you still would have the heat island effect to account for by people burning wood / coal in each house then and now gas heated / electric heated houses now (with some wood still).

 

No matter what is done the method they use to wipe out reporting errors, heat islands, time of day reporting etc this statistical problem will always exist as to definitively state that compared to year 0 (A.D.) the Earth is now 1 degree warmer than it was then.

 

Oh wait, the Earth is actually 1 degree colder than it was then – they still cannot grow grapes in Scotland.

 

Thursday, October 20, 2011

IPhone 4Gs and The English Language

An article about the iPhone talked about how 38 million people who DO NOT SPEAK English, who live in the USA, is at a disadvantage in using them since the voice app is ONLY in English for people living in English speaking USA.
 
If you are here on a "Green Card" it means you are here legally AND your skills are needed and most often that means that you have learned workable English to do your job and function in our society - you can use the phone.
 
If here on a Student Visa that means you are here to get an education and that also means you are either learning English ore have enough understanding to go to school and understand what is being taught IN English - you can use the phone.
 
If you are becoming a CITIZEN then you are REQUIRED to not only learn the real history of the USA but have to learn functional English in order to gain your citizenship - you can use the phone.
 
If the 35 million who do not understand English are living in the USA then either they:
 
1) are too old to learn (maybe 1% of people over 45 are just incapable of learning ANY language, as seen by studies in the 1930s of the immigrant wave from 1890 thru 1920, not a CHOICE by them)
 
2) refused to learn English wanting to keep their "old" language and culture - which in case they should have never come here to begin with since to become an AMERICAN is to learn the language of the nation - English - regardless if it is in law or not
 
3) are here to make money from the USA and then return to the nation where they came from which is not possible to do so. They came here and are exploiting our freedom and opportunities which is due in part to a COMMON LANGUAGE. If they do not care about learning English and we should not care about them in ANY way either and should not help them in any way.
 
4) Are newly legally arrived in the USA - it is one way to learn English!
 
5) Illegally arrived over the past 40 years and to avoid being deported they stay in a community where they all speak the SAME language and never leave - thus no need to learn. Again, we should not worry about them since they made a CHOICE of not wanting to learn English for themselves OR their kids.
 
Over history people coming to the USA from hundreds of nations and thousands (dialects) of languages and ALL learned English after they got here.

Over the last 50 years is the first time people MADE a decision NOT to learn English after getting here because the "intellectuals" have championed and promoted that people who come here should NOT learn our language at all in order to be American.
 
If people who had NO education from the wilds of Russia in 1910 who were dirt poor came here and by 1930 they spoke English and their kids spoke English by the time they were all surveyed in 1930 by the Census bureau - how in the world can someone say that people coming here in the 21st Century who all have at least 12 years of schooling are INCAPABLE of learning or having their kids learn because it is "too hard" and need special help to learn  when NONE of those "special" classes were even though of in the 1910s?
 
They made a CHOICE of not wanting to learn English - so don't worry about them.
 

Monday, October 03, 2011

How Greece Can Become Part of Germany

The debt crisis in Greece has implications around the world if they default, but then, what is the NORMAL things that happen when a company, or a person, defaults? The creditors now OWN what was put up as collateral.
 
Where Greece only put up its name as an asset, and like any business it has lots of things "off the books" that it owns - in the case of Greece it's its sovereignty.
 
If Greece defaults, then Germany, THE real monetary engine that allowed the money to be loaned out and really supports all of Europe, should assume ownership of Greece.
 
It can become another part of Germany. LOTS of Germans already vacation there, and if they, the people of Germany now own it, they can make even better vacation package deals for themselves as well as the rest of Europe.
 
Think about it. The whole concept of the EU is to eventually wipe out all the individual nations and have just the EU. As each nation defaults it can become part of Germany and after 20 years then there is ONLY Germany left.
 
Then the EU can change the name of Germany to EU and now there is only EU.
The way you pronounce it would be of course: EWW